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Prediction for CME (2025-01-04T18:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-01-04T18:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36254/-1
CME Note: Fast partial halo seen generally to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 quickly leaving the SOHO C2 field of view, seemingly associated with an eruption from near the vicinity of Active Region 3939 (S17W58) and associated long duration C7.6-class flare. Quickly moving field lines off the west limb and bright post eruptive arcades are observed in GOES SUVI 284/304. Associated with solar energetic particle events at SOHO, GOES, and STEREO A. | ARRIVAL NOTE: A very weak arrival/glancing blow signature detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1, mainly characterized by an increase in solar wind speed from ~500 km/s to 630 km/s, accompanied by a slight increase in B-total and temperature, as well as an initial very slight increase in density followed by a minor drop in density. The B-field components at first display rapid fluctuation and corresponding slight increase in density to about 4.5cc, possibly indicating a small pileup, followed by a minor decrease in density to about 2cc and notably smoother rotation in the B-field components starting after 2025-01-07T12:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-01-07T04:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-01-06T14:04Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-01-04 20:32
 - Time at C2: 2025-01-04 18:48
 - Radial speed: 1603.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 39 deg
 - Eruption location: S19W38
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 886.90 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2025-01-06 14:04 (i.e. predicted transit time: 43.28 hours)
Lead Time: 28.87 hour(s)
Difference: 13.93 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2025-01-05T23:08Z
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